OECD transport forum ponders transportation needs for 9 billion people

THE OECD's International Transport Forum (ITF), an intergovernmental think tank of 52 member states, focused on the question of how to meet the needs of the nine billion people global population at the group's Leipzig summit last week.


Speaking at the group's 2011 Transport Outlook annual meeting, ITF secretary general Jack Short said: "Coupled with rising incomes this will lead global mobility to expand strongly through 2050.


"If infrastructure and energy prices allow, there will be three to four times as much global passenger mobility (passenger-kilometres travelled) as in 2000 and 2.5 to 3.5 as much freight activity, measured in ton-kilometres," he said.


"Growth will be much stronger outside the OECD (Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development) region than within it. Passenger-kilometres are expected to grow 30 to 40 per cent between 2000 and 2050 and ton-kilometres by 60 to 90 per cent. Outside the OECD, which includes the world's developed countries, passenger-kilometres, could increase by a factor of five to 6.5, and ton-kilometres by a factor of four to five.


"Consequently, like economic mass, the centre of gravity for mobility will shift to non-OECD economies. In 2000, half of all passenger-kilometres were driven in OECD countries. According to our scenarios this declines to around a fifth in 2050. For ton-kilometres, the OECD share declines from a half to around a third," said Mr Short.


"Projections this far ahead are fraught with uncertainty. For example, it is unclear to what levels car ownership per capita will rise in emerging economies. Very high levels, characteristic of the USA are unlikely; somewhere between European and Japanese levels is conceivable. The range between these reference points is large but in either case the share of car-trips in total passenger mobility seems set to increase strongly, from less than 10 per cent at present in China to more than 50 per cent in 2050."


Mr Short predicted that "CO2 emissions will rise less strongly than mobility because of improving fuel economy. By 2050 global emissions from vehicle use might be 2.5 to 3 times as large as they were in 2000.


He said emerging economies are the driverS of global economic expansion the post downturn period. "But their growth model, notably in China, relies heavily on exports and on domestic investment. Given weakening of export demand and reduced availability of near-term investment opportunities, the Chinese economy may increasingly need to turn to other sources of growth such as domestic household demand."
(Source:http://www.schednet.com)