Drewry says box rebound fragile, embryonic

LONDON-based Drewry Shipping consultants recommends against over-confidence on the back of global first quarter results until tangible month-on-month improvements during peak season show real recovery.

"The latest container trade data suggests we may have entered a real recovery phase but comparisons with the depth of the recession in 2009 must be treated with caution," said its latest issue of the Drewry Container Forecaster.

"With a major carrier failure thus far averted and container volumes on the upturn, many believe this year will see a return to better times and profitability, reported Jacksonville's American Shipper. But, it is still early days; a large number of postpanamax vessels are due for delivery this year and most of the all important transpacific rate contracts have still to be signed," the consultancy said.

Its latest quarterly container forecaster said it is too early to "heave a sigh of relief" until rate contracts with transpacific trade are finalised and the delivery of postpanamax vessels due this year are factored into global tonnage.

Although the quarterly review updated its forecast up by 1.9 percentage points on trans-Pacific trade to a 5.4 per cent it must be viewed along with the consultant's supply/demand index for year so far which is below 90 (89) compared to last year.

But east-west headhaul routes will see a 9.5 per cent capacity increase because of the reintroduction of six key Asia-Europe strings in the second quarter, reported Newark's Journal of Commerce. Container Forecaster editor Neil Dekker said global recovery is still in "embryonic stage" at a time when shippers and carriers have turned on one another.

Shippers are angry at rollovers and lack of capacity, and carriers affronted at a practice where exporters book vessel space with more than one carrier, or more containers, than are needed for a shipment referred to as "phantom booking".

"It is clear that shippers will think long and hard before signing new contracts - some will change allegiances, others will seek comfort in using more partners as they try to secure their supply chains in 2010," he said, but added that such "outright hostility" is no longer required with carriers offering solutions and a year previous of low rate relief.

Source: www.schednet.com